Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.006912 0.007794 0.008746 0.009852 0.011101 0.012469 0.014082
2025-12-28 0.005658 0.006904 0.008362 0.010194 0.012439 0.015103 0.018512
2026-01-04 0.004899 0.006314 0.008062 0.010383 0.013392 0.017169 0.022286
2026-01-11 0.004390 0.005915 0.007885 0.010623 0.014340 0.019226 0.026164
2026-01-18 0.003888 0.005442 0.007530 0.010547 0.014809 0.020641 0.029267
2026-01-25 0.003506 0.005079 0.007266 0.010537 0.015328 0.022121 0.032547
2026-02-01 0.003144 0.004698 0.006926 0.010367 0.015574 0.023203 0.035310
2026-02-08 0.002901 0.004461 0.006764 0.010428 0.016143 0.024775 0.038913
2026-02-15 0.002655 0.004194 0.006528 0.010343 0.016465 0.025980 0.042028
2026-02-22 0.002511 0.004069 0.006493 0.010560 0.017266 0.027975 0.046552
2026-03-01 0.002266 0.003759 0.006137 0.010227 0.017142 0.028465 0.048628
2026-03-08 0.002077 0.003524 0.005883 0.010033 0.017220 0.029278 0.051293
2026-03-15 0.001885 0.003271 0.005580 0.009739 0.017115 0.029792 0.053524
2026-03-22 0.001822 0.003232 0.005636 0.010067 0.018119 0.032296 0.059516
2026-03-29 0.001740 0.003153 0.005615 0.010254 0.018880 0.034425 0.065000
2026-04-05 0.001672 0.003094 0.005623 0.010491 0.019747 0.036806 0.071157
2026-04-12 0.001565 0.002952 0.005470 0.010416 0.020020 0.038104 0.075338
2026-04-19 0.001476 0.002838 0.005358 0.010406 0.020413 0.039650 0.080132
2026-04-26 0.001375 0.002692 0.005172 0.010238 0.020480 0.040567 0.083729
2026-05-03 0.001310 0.002610 0.005106 0.010298 0.021003 0.042416 0.089393
2026-05-10 0.001233 0.002500 0.004974 0.010214 0.021223 0.043668 0.093903
2026-05-17 0.001195 0.002465 0.004987 0.010429 0.022077 0.046283 0.101555
2026-05-24 0.001102 0.002311 0.004750 0.010100 0.021754 0.046407 0.103759